The Pharmaceutical Sector: A Long-Term Value Outlook

PharmaFutures 1 was a GBN-led scenario planning exercise undertaken by the pharmaceutical industry and its investors in 2004. The project approach was based on the premise that the industry’s business model needed to adapt in response to the serious challenges facing the pharmaceutical industry.

The people and partners involved during PhamaFutures 1 addressed the dilemma of how to convince investors of ongoing profitability while simultaneously meeting changing and growing societal expectations. Fifteen informed private sector stakeholders reviewed the evolution of the sector over the next decade. Their deliberations were enriched by interviews with thirty external experts and a website discussion forum.

The overall findings outlined seven key issues facing the pharmaceutical industry that were relevant for considering the future operating environment. These findings were explored in depth in the final report PharmaFutures 1: A Long-Term Value Outlook (download report), which presented three plausible, relevant futures, all of which pointed to the inevitability of significant change for the industry.


Download PharmaFutures 1


I have watched the industry suffer the loss of public trust, struggle with bringing new products to market and lose the ability to grow its top line. This perfect storm is reflected in the current share price and as a long term investor I hope to hear and perhaps help find the early signs of a path to recovery.

John Schaetzl, Independent